As South Africans brace for a sharp fuel price increase in early April - potentially as high as R5 per litre – on the back of the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, the longer-term consequences are likely to affect the property market.
That’s according to Just Property CEO, Paul Stevens, who says that while the immediate impact will be felt at the pumps, rising fuel prices will influence household budgets, and ultimately, where and how home buyers choose to live.
“Fuel isn’t just a budget item, it shapes behaviour,” Stevens notes. “When the cost of getting from A to B jumps overnight, people rethink their routines, their work patterns, and their housing decisions. We saw this during COVID-19, and we could see echoes of that again, even though the circumstances are very different.”
Adds independent economist John Loos: “First of all, I don’t expect a rate cut by the Reserve Bank this month. Depending on what happens in the Middle East, the SARB may relook at interest rates when they next meet in May, but it’s probably safer to accept that there won’t be any more cuts this year.”
Loos is also considering the possibility that the coming months will reopen two major debates that have influenced the post-pandemic housing landscape: the future of remote and hybrid work, and the affordability of living close to economic opportunity.
Remote and hybrid work: A conversation that never really ended
The pandemic normalised remote and hybrid work for millions of South Africans, Loos explains, though as offices reopened, many employers pushed for a return to in-person work, citing culture and collaboration. “While the employers’ arguments that often focus on the human culture and connection benefits of in-person contact have merit, the remote work arguments are particularly powerful when it comes to reducing unproductive commuting time and financial costs,” he says. “As such, I believe we should expect the debate around remote and hybrid work to escalate once more, should fuel prices remain elevated for some time, with the employee group that is able to operate in a flexible way likely pushing for greater flexibility.”
While this may not be met with enthusiasm by all employers, he continues, if fuel prices remain high, the debate around work-location flexibility could intensify around:
- affordable housing in high-opportunity areas
- the role of short-term rentals
- the need for mixed-income development
- the limitations of current public-transport infrastructure
What this means for the property market
Stevens believes sustained fuel price hikes will influence buyer and tenant priorities in a number of ways. “Homes with a study, a converted garage, a second lounge will become more more sought-after. And as we’ve seen before, fibre-ready units with designated work spaces and privacy could quickly move from ‘nice-to-haves’ to standard expectations.”
If hybrid work becomes more common again, he continues, the pressure to live close to the CBD will ease, and as a result, demand could grow for homes in areas previously seen as too far for daily commuting.
Suburbs that will align with rising fuel costs
Across South Africa, says Stevens, remote and hybrid work trends, fibre expansion, and mixed-use development are making decentralised living more viable. “Suburbs that combine affordability, space for home offices, and reduced reliance on daily commuting are increasingly well positioned if fuel volatility persists.”
His list of viable suburbs includes:
Muizenberg, which he says has emerged as one of Cape Town’s more accessible coastal suburbs, particularly for buyers and tenants priced out of the City Bowl and Atlantic Seaboard. “It combines good fibre coverage, a walkable local centre, and access to the Southern Line rail corridor, which reduces car dependence. Property prices average around R1.2m for an apartment, R2m for a townhouse or small home, and from R8 500 a month for a rented apartment and R15 000 for a larger home.”
In Gauteng, he highlights Ferndale / Bordeaux in Randburg as an affordable, well-positioned area relative to Sandton and Rosebank. “It has a strong suburban commercial base, meaning that residents can live close to everyday amenities without daily long-distance commuting. Plus it has a high concentration of fibre-connected homes, and it’s close to secondary business nodes and therefore suitable for hybrid work models with occasional Sandton access.”
According to Stevens, apartment prices here average between R850,000 and R1.5m, freestanding homes from R1.6m - R3m, and rentals for similar properties come in at R7,000 - R11,500, and R13,000 - R20,000 respectively.
Alternatively, he recommends parts of Kempton Park that are often overlooked. “Edleen and Van Riebeeck Park offer significantly better affordability than northern Johannesburg while still benefiting strong fibre rollout across Ekurhuleni and greater Gauteng. Perfect for remote-first households where proximity to the CBD isn’t essential, property prices are also very competitive. An apartment will cost between R650,000 - R1.2m, a freestanding house anywhere from R1.3m - R2.4m and the same properties will rent for R6,000 - R9,500, and R10,000 - R16,000 respectively.”
Queensburgh and Bluff in KwaZulu-Natal are worth considering for anyone wanting a coastal or near-coastal lifestyle at a fraction of the cost of Umhlanga or Ballito, suggests Stevens. “For one, Durban’s overall cost of living is lower than Cape Town and Johannesburg; for another its fibre coverage is expanding quickly, which will support long-term home-based work.” According to Stevens, apartments sell on average for R750,000 - R1.4m, freestanding homes for around R1.6m – R2.8m, and rentals for the same range from R6,500 – R10,000, and R11,000 – R18,000.
Housing affordability: Pressure on prime areas
Loos’s second major trend prediction relates to where people can afford to live, especially in cities like Cape Town, where economic opportunity is concentrated in high-value areas.
‘All other things being equal, higher transport costs are likely to drive a higher number of people to seek accommodation closer to places of work,” Loos suggests. While working from home or hybrid work can potentially ease this need for some, many employees’ jobs can’t be done remotely, he continues. And with a city like Cape Town having a large proportion of its economic opportunity in limited zones such as the City Bowl and immediate surroundings - areas which also have very high property values and rental values – he says that for many people, finding conveniently located, affordable accommodation in relation to workplaces in those areas is almost impossible.
For Stevens, those with work-from-home or hybrid permissions could find the solution in decentralisation. “Suburbs with functioning rail or bus systems, walkable, mixed-use neighbourhoods and even those in outlying areas could provide a long-term but necessary evolution. South Africa’s cities weren’t designed for modern commuting patterns. If fuel volatility becomes a recurring feature of global markets, decentralisation won’t be optional, it will be essential.”
This could mean:
- new business nodes in lower-income areas
- mixed-use developments outside traditional CBDs
- satellite office hubs
- industrial and logistics clusters closer to residential communities
A market in motion
Both Stevens and Loos agree that the coming months will be characterised by uncertainty. But the direction, they emphasise, is clear: when the cost of movement rises, the value of location, flexibility, and adaptability rises with it.
For Stevens, the message to homeowners, buyers, and investors is clear. “Pay attention to how people live, not just where they live. The homes that will hold value in the next decade are the ones that can flex with changing work patterns, rising transport costs, and shifting urban dynamics.”
